The World of 2050 – Drivers of change and opportunity
Date: June 22, 2015
Name: The World of 2050 – Drivers of change and opportunity
Presenter: Professor Ian Goldin
It is important for leaders of tomorrow to be able to identify the key global issues that are affecting the future. These challenges will impact many businesses of all industries. Vancouver Board of Trade is proudly invited Professor Ian Goldin, the Founder of Oxford Martin School, to discuss his observation towards the next 25 years. Ian Goldin will focus on technology, demographics and globalization issues that will change the current trend in the market. This academic presentation will provide leaders the insight of upcoming business world.
Professor Ian Goldin, the Founder Oxford Martin School at University of Oxford, is also an university professor of Globalization and Development. Golden published over 50 article and 19 books, including “The Butterfly Defect”. Furthermore, Goldin has been nominated the Global Leader of Tomorrow by the World Economic Forum. His experience and engagements have helped many companies around the world.
Goldin believes the world needs to plan long term to sustain for the future. Technology leads to globalization, which will sustain the quality of life. Leaders need to adapt new ways to support the health generation.
Thinking about the future, Goldin indicates the walls are down, which signifies the connectivity in the world is getting stronger. However, the edge of the world will still impact the global. Leaders need to prepare for the future by improve the shape of life and the foundation of the community.
Goldin defines the word “Change” as to accurate and continue. There will be unexpected surprises, which will push many companies to the edge. These organizations must find ways to execute simple ideas that can improve people’s lives. The world has connected over 1 billion people, and the number will increase to over 5 billion people in the future. To sustain the connectivity, Goldin believes leaders must include the 3 elements, which are give, learn and advance.
Leaders must unlock the creativity talent in the new generation and allow them to participate. The resources are now more accessible than before, and leaders must understand how the global flows work. If global flows are improving, GDP will increase and the world income will grow. This will lead to sustainability for the new globalization.
“Ability for things to move”
The measures of financial integration is increasing. Comparing with the previous years of GDP, The current GDP is doubling every year and the income growth will rapidly increasing.
Is this sustainable for future?
Goldin mentions the life expectancy for people is 20 years more than before and the literacy will be halved. Inventions are improving and the creativity of new ways is the trend.
In the economic prospective, Goldin is concerned if the new generation has the ability to sustain. Therefore, two major concerns for economy are mentioned by Goldin.
- Walls are down, but the other walls are coming along
- The systemic risk will still exists. Even though people are more connected, they are also connected with other risks as well
Future prediction
Goldin predicts the population for the future is slowing down. The life expecting will start to decrease. Elderly are growing and there will be rapid decline of fertility. There will be huge increase in middle class people as well and the life expectancy from female is still greater than male. Goldin believes leaders need to put new structure. People need to mobilize the pension, and the migration will be a huge issue for Canada.
Migration is the key variable for the future and skilled and unskilled people will determine the economic growth. In the economic growth, Goldin stats the macro is in good shape. People are investing in high rate and the future is more surprise than ever. The project income per capita for many countries are increasing. The GDP will increase. The emerging markets are driving the growth.
The technology is changing and more than million of people are powered every year. The information is available more than ever. The risks and the costs of new data will start to go down. However, the piracy is still an issue for the globalization. The danger of collapsing bank from internet connection is still a concern for the future. Goldin believes leaders must focus on the management the technology because artificial intelligence will take over 50% of the job in the next 20 years
The tragedy of the commons is still exists. The quantity of fishes will decrease, scarcity will increase, ocean will reduce and high climate change as well.
Goldin suggests leaders to find a way to monitor the global governance. New players are coming and it will impact the benefit of change. New technology will be formed and leaders must pay attention to the integration. The future is uncertain, and people know that. However, Goldin wants people respond, not going back and pretend nothing will change. The world needs more connectivity.
Questions and Answers
To respond any global complexity issue, Goldin believes the cause of the effect will important. Therefore, Goldin suggests leaders to manage complexity with the right model and judgement. Politicians need to look long term because they usually under estimate the problem. Therefore, Goldin believes the world cannot let politicians capture the money.
Goldin emphasizes there are 3 things will impact the trend in economy.
- Antibiotic issue
- DNA sequencing
- Game change
Goldin believes the housing price of real estate in Vancouver will increase. There will be high level of women in support of non profit sectors. The biggest challenge business will face is shortage of labour. Business will also face the issue of the transition of energy policy and the change of shareholders in community.
As for foreign crisis, Goldin believes people are still repeating the history. There will be more demand on intellectual property. Restructuring is needed.
“How confident are you? Are you prepare to restrict the things we use?”